▲ All-Time High — $126k (Oct 2025)● Current — updates live‑‑ 200-day MA — trend filter
📐 Technical Analysis
Primary trend (200-day MA)Bearish — price below MA
200-day MA level~$78,400
100-day MA level~$71,900
50-day MA level~$67,300
RSI (14)Neutral ~48
MACDBelow signal — negative momentum
24h change—
7d change+1.2%
YTD change−30% (from $93k)
Distance from ATH−48.3%
⛓️ On-Chain & Supply
Circulating supply20.07M / 21M
Supply mined~95.6%
Halving cycleNext ~Apr 2028
Miner profitability (hashprice)Under pressure
Exchange balancesDeclining — accumulation trend
Long-term holders~65% of supply dormant >1yr
Network hashrateNear all-time high
Active addresses (7d avg)~780k
💹 Derivatives & Positioning
Open interest (futures)~$28B
Funding rateSlightly negative — short bias
Estimated leverage ratioElevated
Spot ETF flows (30d)Net outflows
Options: put/call ratioSkewed to puts
Long/short ratioShort-heavy
🌍 Macro & Sentiment
Crypto Fear & Greed IndexFear — 32
Fed policy stanceRestrictive — rate-sensitive
Dollar index (DXY)Strong — headwind for BTC
10Y real yieldElevated — competes with risk assets
Regulatory climate (US)Mixed / evolving
Correlation to equitiesModerate — risk-on proxy
🎯 Key Price Levels
$78,400 — 200-day MAReclaim = trend flip
$70,000Resistance
$67,300 — 50-day MAResistance
$65,000–$66,500Immediate resistance
$62,500Immediate support
$61,400Support
$59,000Major support zone
$55,000Downside target
🧭 Market Outlook
Bitcoin is in a bearish-to-neutral consolidation — down ~48% from its all-time high and trading
below all key moving averages, which keeps the primary trend negative. On-chain data is mixed: long-term
holders and declining exchange balances suggest accumulation, but miner pressure and a short-heavy
derivatives market point to lingering downside risk. The path of least resistance stays down until price
reclaims the 200-day MA near $78,400. A break below $59k opens the door to $55k; reclaiming $70k
would be the first sign of a reversal.
Live price + charts via CoinGecko public API · refreshes every 15s · other metrics are analyst estimates as of Aug 2026